What the Steady Drop in Minnesota’s Probation Population Means

By Will Cooley

Minnesota has historically boasted a low incarceration rate compared to the rest of the United States. But when we add community supervision—probation, parole, and supervised release—to this number, 2023 rankings place Minnesota as the 13th most punitive state. Simply put by scholar Michelle Phelps, while other states have a “mass incarceration” problem, we rely on “mass probation.” A steady decline in probation numbers over the last 20 years, however, signals that Minnesota is making evidence-based changes to its practices.

How did we get here?

During the “tough on crime” era of the 1990s and 2000s, Minnesota’s probation population boomed, peaking at 142,031 in 2006. Many Minnesotans were on probation for too long with too many conditions, creating barriers to rehabilitation, overburdening supervision agents, and straining county budgets. 

Since 2006, however, the probation population has steadily declined. In 2025, it dropped to 84,712, the state’s lowest number in decades. Minnesota has fallen from the 13th most punitive state in 2003 to 17th in 2026. 

Why this steady drop in probation numbers?

We at the Minnesota Justice Research Center (MNJRC) have been closely monitoring and analyzing the steps our state has taken since 2023 towards improving supervision outcomes, and how those steps are actually being implemented. From incentivising early discharge for good behavior, to legislating a five-year cap on probation terms in 2023 (that MNJRC strongly advocated for), to moving from “compliance” to “coaching” models for agents, it’s clear we’ve gotten serious about evidence-based changes to our supervision practices.

But the work isn’t done. The MNJRC will continue to push for and monitor changes to community supervision that improve public safety and enhance positive outcomes for the thousands of individuals on it. The evidence demonstrates that we all benefit when:

• Probation terms are short and provide a clear path toward behavior modification

• Agent caseloads are manageable 

• Supervision conditions are tailored to the individual, and clients are provided with community-based resources 

Minnesota knows that severe punishment is almost never the answer; truly achieving justice requires a balance of accountability, transparency, and restoration. Through your support, the MNJRC is transforming community supervision in our state, making it a system that works better for everyone, including people on supervision, agents, crime survivors, and communities.